Elections 2009
Michael O’ Donovan has been selected as a a member of the SABC’s panel of experts who will provide commentary on the 2009 election results. He comments as follows:
“Every national election following the founding election of 1994 has been marked by a pronounced drop in voter turnout. In 1994 88 percent of adults of voting age cast a ballot. Five years later the turnout rate among this group was 65 percent and in 2004 the turnout rate, when measured against the number of adults in the country, further dropped to 57 percent.
Aside from the current enthusiasm that pervades media coverage there is some reason to expect that the declining trend is likely to continue albeit at a reduced tempo. As the novelty of voting wears off in this still young democracy we can expect that turnout rates more closely approximate that of the established democracies. In those established democracies where voting is not mandatory voter turnout is typically between 50 and 55 percent of the voting age population. If the established trend is honoured and turnout drops to, say 55 percent, we can expect only 70 percent of registered voters to cast their ballots.
Predicting turnout (and party performance) solely on past trends can be misleading. However it is difficult to find substantive reasons for believing that there is anything qualitatively different about this election. Consequently the established trend may well be continued. Those stating that there will be an increased turnout allude to the mood of the populace, a mythical “Obama factor” and the role of the youth. However those citing these factors should recall that there was a similar mood at each of the preceding elections.Furthermore any massive impact of the youth vote is precluded by their low registration rates. For example, less than one-in-three people aged 18 to 19 have registered to vote in this election. In contrast to factors pointing to a high turnout is the fact that, for the individual voter, there is precious little at stake in this election. The outcome of the election is (with the possible exception of the Western Cape) a foregone conclusion at national and provincial levels. It is already assured that Jacob Zuma will be the next president and that the ANC will maintain its substantial majority in the national assembly. In the provinces the situation ios even more pronounced. For example in Limpopo opposition parties are scrambling for a share of five or so percent of the vote not apparently secured by the ANC. The impact of any one individual voting or not voting remains miniscule. Under such circumstances an individuals reluctance to vote would be rational and should probably be expected (particularly if the weather is miserable).
The reduced turnout has a differing impacts on political parties. The effect to date can be seen by the fact that every successive election has been marked by a lower turnout and an increased ANC majority. Between 1994 and 2004 their proportion of votes rose from 57 percent to almost 70 percent of votes cast. The increasing majority is somewhat surprising given that the ANCs primary support base is concentrated among the “poor”. International trends show that, with time, voting should become increasingly established among the better educated sector of the population. Conversely the less educated would vote at lower rates. By implication the poor and rural poor in particular would vote at ever decreasing rates. Quite the opposite seems to be happening. In all likelihood the ANC’s increased majority is a reflection of its massive organisational capacity and generous resourcing. This capacity was amply demonstrated at the final ANC rally last Sunday in which close to 500 000 people took part. The converse also has to be true – that the opposition parties ability to mobilise their supporters to actually vote is increasingly placed in question.”