Ratele’s figures (derived from the 2006 National Injury Mortality Surveillance System data) indicate that young black men in SA die as a result of homicide at the annual rate of about 500 per 100000. Ratele notes these figures are similar to the homicide rates one would expect to see during times of war.

In a World Health Organisation bulletin in 2007, Rosana Norman and others used the 2000 national mortality data in conjunction with population data from the Actuarial Society of SA to estimate the homicide rate for the country as a whole.

The age-standardised homicide rate per 100000 was estimated at 113 for men and 21 for women separately, and 65 per 100000 overall.

If police were to be killed at the rate that young black men are killed, the 190000-strong South African Police Service would be expected to experience 950 homicides a year.

This year to date, there have been 50 killings of police — a rate of 46 per 100000 if adjusted pro rata.

The emphasis on police homicides by the government and the relative silence around the continuing extremely high rate of homicide among young black men is puzzling given these figures.

But perhaps the disconnect relates to the lack of obvious solutions for the larger problem.

Compulsory bulletproof jackets may indeed improve survival rates for police caught up in shooting while patrolling. But what can be done to protect young black men?

At the same seminar, Gary Barker of the Instituto Promundo of Brazil presented qualitative evidence that in Brazil’s favelas the most important protective factor was the existence of another person in a young man’s life whom he did not want to let down — such as a grandparent.

My own research on victimisation on behalf of the Centre for Justice and Crime Prevention in Galeshewe township (population of about 100000) accords with this finding, as it indicates that the most important protective factors relate to the “connectedness” of men.

Married men and men with children were much less likely to be victims of violent crime in Galeshewe.

Men aged 27-31 were most at risk. This Galeshewe profile of likely victim (male, single, childless, 30-ish), close to that of the likely perpetrator, in turn points to a lack of social distance between victims and perpetrators, and the role of exposure to risk in victimisation.

There is little the government can do directly to ensure the connectedness of young men.

But the Galeshewe data also threw up a limited number of risk and protective factors over which the government does have control.

Easy access to alcohol and marijuana increased the risk of victimisation in Galeshewe. Regulation of alcohol and drugs falls squarely under government control.

Further risk factors included a high prevalence of graffiti and more than half an hour’s travel time to the nearest police station. Again, removal of graffiti and access to police is under the control of the government.

Protective factors identified in the data were the perceived adequacy of refuse collection and adequacy of schooling in the neighbourhood.

What this means is that simply ensuring the rubbish is collected and schools are operating adequately may save some young black men’s lives.

Granted, adequate schooling is not easy to achieve comprehensively, but surely SA can ensure adequate refuse collection?

There may not be a bulletproof jacket for young black men, but these are concrete actions well within the mandate of the government, which the evidence suggests will help to reduce homicide rates among young black men.

The core problem, however, is that no one really cares about disconnected young black men. Until they are cared about and become connected, they will continue to be caught up in violence and die at wartime rates — and the rest of society will continue to experience the deleterious knock-on effects.

Demonstrators walk past Parliament, Lilongwe, 20 July 2011

The launch coincidentally took place against the background of widespread demonstrations against the Malawi government, accompanied by the use of force by the police and army. Jean Redpath presented the findings for the case flow management section of the report on behalf of the Community Law Centre of the University of the Western Cape, in partnership with Malawi’s Centre for Human Rights and Rehabilitation; the Centre for Human Rights, Education, Advice and Assistance; the Paralegal Advisory Service Institute, and the Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace.

Jean Redpath presenting the Soros Foundation Moldova Victimisation Survey Findings via video link in December 2010

The 2010 survey provides one of the first estimations of the extent of abuse of detainees and the extent of police failure to comply with human rights standards in Moldova. That 4 out of every 10 men detained experiences physical abuse or maltreatment is of serious concern. Reform of the police is urgent.

The backdrop to this police abuse is a pervasive climate of corruption in Moldova. The extent to which the 2010 survey shows ordinary officials from teachers to doctors to judges appear to have been involved in bribery in a single year (2009) is of grave concern. This report recommends that the judiciary be the primary target for the eradication of corruption. If the judiciary is credible, then there is a means of stopping the cycle of corruption.

View the presentation here.

A crime 'hotspot' in Galeshewe

During 2010 the Centre for Justice and Crime Prevention (CJCP) conducted a victimisation survey in Galeshewe.  The analysis found that social capital activities such as sports may have unintended effects and service delivery may have no crime prevention effects at the individual level at all. Indeed the qualitative evidence suggests ‘obvious’ solutions may be part of the problem. This paper was presented at a conference in Sandton in December 2010.

A draft of the paper is available here.

Population densities in Cape Town

Sustainability agendas in urban planning have largely been driven by attempts to create a “compact city” or otherwise densifying. Densification as a key driver of more sustainable cities has been embraced as a policy goal of government at all levels and most political persuasions in the democratic era. However in spite of policy to the contrary it is believed the number of households and people housed per 100 square metres in urban areas has declined in Cape Town. Consequently it is postulated that South African policies in favour of densification have not worked.  The report seeks to identify appropriately policies and their levers via law or associated regulations and development control instruments for the promotion of a more sustainable Cape Town. A draft report is available here.

Preliminary results were presented at a seminar entitled: Is densification just a cruel mirage? The role of law in transforming Cape Town into a compact city. Listen to the podcast of proceedings here.

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