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National issues determine local election results

March 05, 2006, 12:00

By Michael O'Donovan
Perhaps the defining feature of Wednesday's election is the extent to which the patterns of local and national elections have been brought into line with each other. In previous years the ruling party fared relatively poorly in local elections - receiving 10% fewer votes than at the national level. This deficit was substantially reduced on Wednesday.

In the past this difference in support patterns was been explained in terms of the ANC being prejudiced by the lower turnout rate. After Wednesday a new explanation is called for. There was an insignificant difference in turnout on Wednesday and that of the previous local government election of 2000.

Despite the similar turnout rates there are significant difference in the share of votes received by political parties. The ANC increased its share of votes cast by 6%. Conversely the opposition parties saw their share of votes cut. Only five percentage points now separate the ANC's share of votes in the 2004 and 2006 elections.

National and local vote share halved
A comparison of this election and the last national election (2004) shows that the DA, IFP and ID experienced slight gains while the ANC lost 5 percentage points. In other words, Wednesdays' election brought the vote shares enjoyed by the main parties into line with the proportion they get in national elections. The difference in vote share between national and local elections was roughly halved.

This indicates that at least half of the difference in the parties' share of votes (between national and local elections) cannot be understood in terms of differing turnout rates and other explanations are required.

The convergence of results between the two election types can be explained, in part, by voters seeing the local elections as a mini-national election. In other words the issues on which voters base their choices are ones of identity and heritage rather than of local government performance or the character of the local candidates. This explanation has underpinned many analysts' understanding of voter behaviour - especially in terms of the absence of discussion on policy issues.

local and provincial issues, the key
This explanation is however not wholly adequate. The trend is more an indication of political parties' failure (probably through lack of trying) to persuade voters that local issues and local candidates were important.

Moreover in some areas - notably in the Western Cape - radically differing turnout rates among the supporters of some parties suggest that local and provincial issues can be a key mobilising factor. There is also still a residual difference in vote shares - the two election results are not exactly in line with each other. This difference still has to be accounted for.